top of page

Search Results

844 items found for ""

  • Who Gets Rich from Economic Indicators?

    Since macroeconomic indicators have no physical representation in the natural world, we must admit that their definition ultimately depends on arbitrary human choices. In other words, macroeconomic indicators are fundamentally subjective. Yet, macroeconomic indicators not only form the backbone of contemporary academic economics, they also guide political decisions aimed at making our lives more enjoyable. Remarkably, social scientists have largely neglected this issue, which poses a potential threat to the validity of a vast body of economic literature. Illustratively, Gross Domestic Product, the most widely used indicator for measuring the economic performance of nations, is calculated by summing up all the monetary transactions in a country. This immediately reveals the myopic nature of GDP, which only accounts for market-based production and, in so doing, completely neglects non-monetary production. Furthermore, GDP does not take into account what kind of goods and services are being produced, nor how these products come into being. Understandably, several critics have argued in favor of developing indicators that take into account currently neglected aspects, varying from environmental degradation to inequality and happiness. Although many of these calls for change are sensible and have found a considerable amount of resonance in public opinion, their actual impact on policy has been small. The question of “Who or what determines how macroeconomic indicators are defined?” constitutes an issue that has received even less attention. Roughly and briefly, two links must be established in order to answer this question. First, we should establish a link between indicators and political outcomes. That is, for indicators to be of any importance, they must have an effect on political outcomes. Second, we should find a connection between the specific interests of stakeholders and stakeholders’ attempts to manipulate the definition of economic indicators. Influence of economic indicators A telling example of the influence of economic indicators can be found in the European debt crisis. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, European states – which had agreed that government deficits could not exceed 3 percent of GDP and that government debts could not exceed 60 percent of GDP – saw themselves obliged to cut government spending. In other words, the contraction of GDP forced European states to introduce austerity measures, affecting the life of millions of people. Of course, if Europe would have based its financial policies upon different indicators or would have calculated GDP in a slightly different fashion, political outcomes would have been different. Even without these kind of political agreements, GDP affects policy. GDP gives a measure of taxable economic activity, which, in turn, determines the potential budgets of which political decision makers dispose. Consequently, when assessing the risk of financing government debts, investors closely watch GDP growth rates. When investors believe that government deficits are too high or GDP growth rates too low, the costs of financing government debt rise, costing states billions of dollars. This, of course, forms an important incentive for states to stimulate GDP growth. Finally, politicians often refer to the development of unemployment, inflation and economic growth under their command as a means to prove that their policies have been successful. If they want to do so in a credible manner, they need to back these claims up with widely used economic indicators. It seems probable that the general public, hoping that economic growth will improve their overall well-being, is receptive to these claims of success. Altogether, it seems reasonable to expect policies aimed at bringing down unemployment indicators, stirring up economic growth indicators, and maintaining inflation indicators at acceptable levels. If we take once again GDP as an example, we see that GDP-growth – often the ultimate policy goal – can be achieved in three manners. 1) Redefining the formulas by which GDP is calculated. 2) Encouraging the market to occupy terrain pertaining to the non-market based economy 3) Fostering growth in the number of economic transactions. Obviously, the redefinition of GDP formulas does not add anything to the amount of economic activity in a country. Still, politicians might be tempted to redefine GDP indicators from time to time as to present a rosier picture of economic reality. If they successfully deceive investors, they might even foster real economic growth through cheap credit. However, it seems likely that changing the yardstick used for evaluating economic policy above all leads to inconsistent policies. Moreover, once investors recognize the scam that has been played upon them, their mistrust will negatively affect economic growth through higher interest rates. According to the second method, governments are likely to introduce measures aimed at discouraging domestic and communal work and encouraging market-based work. When non-market based economic activity is replaced by market based economic activity, GDP falsely represents a rise in economic activity. By dominating an ever greater number of every-day activities, the market economy swipes away traditional forms of production, bringing about significant cultural change. The third method seems more desirable since it is the only one that involves real economic growth. But, actually, this may not be as straightforward as it seems. A former teacher of mine once said: “One who takes economic growth as its ultimate goal, is mixing up instruments with objectives.” In other words, economic growth in general does not add much to the well-being of anyone. Further assessment – focusing at environmental costs, social consequences and the exact composition of production – is necessary to evaluate the true desirability of policies. Who are the stakeholders and how do they manipulate indicators? As for now, we can only speculate about the politics behind macroeconomic indicators. It is up to us, the next generation of economists, to analyze the political process that leads to the formalization of economic indicators. Two potential research lines follow below. First, one could study how the transition from GNI to GDP, which took place in the early nineties, was decided upon. Arguably, using GDP as an indicator results in policies with a neoliberal bias. Since, by choosing GDP over GNI, one focuses on the total amount of wealth created in a given economy, rather than on who walks away with this wealth. Think, for instance, about the role the IMF plays when structural adjustment measures force development countries to open up their economies to multinational corporations. Second, the formulas used to calculate GDP, which exclude both the economic inequality and external costs resulting from economic activity, might serve elite interests. That is, the current definition of GDP leads to policies focused on growth in general, marginalizing the importance of distributive issues. Consequently, GDP might indicate that an economy is growing, whilst the majority of people in that economy do not experience any improvement in their economic position. Similarly, the marginalization of environmental aspects might benefit elites who enjoy the profits generated by polluting industries. Recap Two things should be clear by know. First, macroeconomic indicators are not and will never be neutral since they result from human decisions. Second, the indicators we use to assess our policies and the formulas we use to calculate them matter, because indicators shape future policy. Consequently, the specific definition of an indicator will benefit some stakeholders, while it will hurt others. Little is known, however, about the efforts of stakeholders to manipulate indicators to their advantage. This leaves us with a black box full of potential research questions. So, for all students out there who, despite attending yoga classes, eating super healthy, and reading lots of mindfulness books, still have sleepless nights because they cannot decide upon an interesting thesis topic. Well, here it is! Handed to you on a silver platter by Rostra. It might not be the most conventional topic, and you might need to overcome some resistance along the way. But, is it relevant? Most definitely!

  • The News that Shaped the Month #4

    News Recap: Economics – by Daniel Koudijs Uncertainty is the key word of 2016’s rocky start. This month, market volatility reached heights as oil prices reached record lows. Some of the biggest January losses in decades were reported on stock markets all around the world. Especially China suffered. The Chinese government had intended to limit volatility by implementing “circuit breakers”: the forced suspension of trading once losses reach a threshold (a 15 minute pause at -5%, full closure at -7%). The effects were the opposite: volatility spiked and on the 7th it took all but 14 minutes before circuit breakers shut down the entire market. They were implemented on the 4th and suspended only 4 days later. The broader implication of the failed experiment is again more questioning of the ability of the Communist Party to control the economy. In turn, revised growth numbers for America showed no improvement, placing question marks on the FED’s ability to control their own economy. For some, all this uncertainty has become too much. Martin Taylor, a well-known and very well performing hedge fund manager decided to shut down his fund after 15 years. The reason why: growing dependence on China and India, combined with the obscurity of their data has made forecasting harder than ever. Welcome to the new year. China Economic Growth Rate Slows to 25-Year Low – by Antoine Steen A 6.9% economic growth rate may sound high, but it is China’s slowest growth rate in a quarter of a century. It presents a small but significant fall from last year’s figure of 7.3%. As one of the drivers of the global economy, China’s growth is a major concern for investors across the world. The IMF has said that it expects China’s growth rate to fall to 6.3% this year and 6% next year – short of Beijing’s official growth target of “about 7%”. That China’s growth rate should slow at some point is to be expected – exponential growth cannot last forever. But the central government has found managing this transition challenging. It says that it is seeking to move towards an economy led by consumption and services, rather than one driven by exports and investment. And there are encouraging signs official efforts to nurture a consumer economy are working – in 2014, spending on online commerce grew by 33.3%. ECB – by Yoeri Min The European Central Bank (ECB) is maintaining the key interest rates in the euro zone on the – as expected – current levels. Still, the ECB speculates on additional measures in March. The decision was made on Thursday 21st of January, after a policy meeting of the ECB. The refinancing interest rate, the most important rate, remains at 0,05 percent. This is the rate at which banks can borrow money. The rate was last reduced in September 2014. The deposit interest rate, the rate at which banks are allowed to store money at the ECB, remains at -0,3 percent. Consequently, banks pay for storing their capital at the ECB. By doing so, the ECB encourages banks to lend money to companies and individuals instead of storing it at the ECB. However, inflation could increase in the long term. News Recap: Politics – by Vlad Cristian Marin Last month has seen the world trembling under the pressure of a dozen political events. To start with, Taiwan’s latest elections have resulted in an outright win of the pro-independence party DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) both for the presidency and for a majority in the parliament. Perhaps one of the most tolerant and progressive countries in Asia, Taiwan has elected its first female president, in an exercise of democracy, strongly supported by the people’s will. Also, the aboriginal community, which accounts for 2% of the total population, has won 7 seats in the legislative body, a minority of its kind being over-represented for the first time in history. Following the 14 July 2015 accord between several world powers and Iran, the Persian Gulf country has finally committed to abolishing its nuclear program and sanctions have been lifted. Thus, its access to international markets has been re enabled and trade has been immediately resumed. The Gulf country’s status change comes at a sensitive time in the region, since its tense relations with Saudi Arabia have recently escalated to a new high. The 46th World Economic Forum, held between January 20 – 23 in Davos, Switzerland, has brought together world’s most influential business, political and cultural leaders. From prime ministers and presidents to world-class entrepreneurs and actors, they all have a common goal: plotting a better world through shaping global, regional and industry agendas. Among hundreds of talks, this year’s topics include: China, the migration crisis, oil prices, renewable energy, a Cyprus peace deal, Latin American economies, Brexit or gender equality. El Chapo Arrested: A Story Better Than an Action Movie – by Olga Kowalska The biggest drug lord and the head of the world’s most powerful drug-trafficking organization Sinaloa cartel, Joaquin Guzman Loera (known as El Chapo), was caught on 8th January 2016, half a year after his escape from a maximum-security prison. The escape in July 2015 was already his second one and it meant a huge embarrassment for the Mexican government. It is said that El Chapo’s own vanity contributed to finding and arresting him. Messages exchanged between Mexican actress Kate del Castillo and American actor Sean Penn, who interviewed El Chapo for an article published by Rolling Stones, helped the security forces track him down. Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto claimed that the country speeds up its efforts to extradite the drug boss to U.S. If you thought that such stories happen only in the movies, here is a sad proof they don’t. Better Living Through Diplomacy? – by Artur Rymer On the 16th of January 2016, Yukiya Amano, Director General of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has announced that Iran has met the primary requirements of Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a deal brokered between the country and 5 + 1 group (China, France, Russia, UK, USA + Germany) in summer 2015. The Iran nuclear crisis has started in 2002, when information came to light that the country has facilities able to produce enriched uranium, necessary for production of nuclear weapons. Since then, UN and major global powers, worried of a possibility of a nuclear power in unstable Middle East, have consistently demanded that Iran reduces its nuclear programme and imposed strict sanctions, including an embargo on the country’s rich oil industry. According to JCPOA, Iran has to reduce its facilities so that they can enrich uranium to a level sufficient only for production of nuclear energy and not nuclear weapons as well as admit IAEA’s surveillors. The country’s compliance with the deal has resulted in lifting some of the strictest sanctions, allowing for resumed oil exports and access to the world’s financial markets and $100 billion worth of assets. The deal has been called a huge diplomatic success, however, some countries (e.g. Israel) point out that Iran can try to expand its nuclear programme in secret. Only the time will tell whether the deal is a proof that diplomacy is the key to solving international crises or if the world should take much a stricter stance on those who breach international law. Business Recap: Dancing on Ice? – Ioana Nicolau Economic turbulence seems to be spread out across the sky of many industries. However, Goldman Sachs, the M&A champion, constantly seems to overlook possible market crush. While oil prices are decreasing and China’s economy is losing speed, Goldman Sachs is taking another positive stance upon business deal-making over the next period. Contrary to this bright outlook, Unilever encountered lower pre-tax profit, despite its 4.1% sales growth in the last period of their previous fiscal year. The disappointing loss amounts for €7.2bn, representing a 6% year-on-year decline.   Problems arise not only due to market volatility, but also due to business ethics. This is the case of French car maker, Renault, which is expected to recall for inspection more than 15,000 vehicles with defects in the emissions-control system. However, better late than never was not the case for Volkswagen, which has been recently sued by the general attorney of New Mexico for the emissions fraud. Going further with regards to Business ethics, tech companies are the ones which seem to be having a really hard time. Giants such as Apple, Samsung and Sony are facing serious accusations of child labour. It is being speculated that minerals used in these firms’ productions have been mined by children. The companies were caught on the wrong foot for having ignored the need for basic checks on this issue. V&D bankruptcy – by Michael van Rhee This month saw the bankruptcy of Dutch department store Vroom & Dreesmann, better known as V&D. Originally from 1887, this chain has been part of the Dutch streetscape for well over a century. Did it come as a surprise? Not really, because V&D had been struggling for a much longer period of time already, starting well before 2015. Why? There are multiple reasons, but arguably the most important one is that V&D hasn’t done enough to continue to appeal to its potential customers. As a kind of ‘middle of the road’ department store, it excels at neither one thing or the other, and it has been surpassed by most other stores in just about everything they sell. Their main offering is still clothing, but nothing in their collection really stands out, giving you little reason to pay the place a visit for that alone. Then they sell cosmetics, for which you can go to a dozen of other stores already, and the same holds true for their books, CD’s, DVD’s… In fact, the only thing that was still profitable about V&D was its integrated restaurant chain, La Place, and even that’s mediocre at best. Should we feel sorry for V&D? Maybe for its employees, but certainly not for its policymakers. Seriously, give those guys a marketing textbook! The Jigsaw of Matter – by Raffaele Di Carlo 2016 is apparently also going to be the year of scientific breakthroughs, as four new chemical elements have finally filled the seventh row of Mendeleev’s periodic table. Discovered by an international team of US, Japanese and Russian scientists, these new superheavy elements are quite different from the elements we are familiar with: absent in nature, they are artificially synthesized by slamming lighter nuclei together and following their radioactive decay; the half-life of these elements only lasts fractions of a second – before they break back into lighter elements – but the reaction that allows their creation may be of paramount importance for nuclear physicists in their study of the structural stability of the nucleum. The International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) is still divided on the matter of how to name the elements, which are currently designated by the functional names of 113, 115, 117 and 118, which are their atomic numbers and places on the table. Regardless of the name, the new discovery is certainly going to significantly boost the efforts on developing even further elements, which might – scientists argue – be more stable from 120 onwards. Whether these elements, once they acquire a tangible form, might be a base for new, impressive technologies, only time can tell. Month of Movie Awards – Magdalena Wiśniewska On the 10th of January the Golden Globes Awards were granted. There were two main interest points for online public. First of them was an extravagant speech of Ricky Gervais, which resembled more of a roast of Hollywood. Second was Tarantino’s unexpected blunder about his film’s composer’s, Ennio Morricone’s, awards’ history. The director, who is well known for being a walking encyclopedia of cinema, happened to forget that Morricone already obtained an Oscar, three Golden Globes and two Grammys and stated that it was his first serious individual award. Moreover, Leonardo DiCaprio has obtained the award for best performance by an actor in motion picture drama for the role of Hugh Glass in The Revenant. One month from now Oscars will follow. As the Globes are usually their good prediction, the whole internet is holding its breath if DiCaprio will finally, after five nominations, win an Oscar. Match-Fixing in Tennis – by Michel Mijlof Normally, if you hear ‘match-fixing’, you are thinking of football. But this time, it is not football but tennis. According to leaked documents of the ATP (Association of Tennis Professionals), which are in hands of the BBC, there is a huge chance that match-fixing took place in the most important tennis competitions in the last ten years. 50 of top players are suspected of losing games on purpose, among them Grand-Slam winners. Fraud might have taken place even at the Wimbledon tournament. The Tennis Integrity Unit (TIU) did some research about match-fixing in the past couple of years. They provided some results but they did nothing further with it, which, of course, is quite strange. It is understood that hundreds of thousands of pounds were gambled in suspicious games and a lot of these gambles were done in Russia, North Italy and Sicily. The BBC did not announce which players exactly are involved in these match-fixing scandals but they said that at least eight of them are participating in this year’s Australian Open tournament. These players are involved in games that were ‘fixed’ in 2003. The ATP is investigating this problem further and we will probably hear more about it soon!

  • Procrastination: Is There a Cure for It?

    Can you imagine failing even more than procrastinating, while writing an article about procrastination? I didn’t even have to imagine such a fail, instead, I just empirically experienced it. So, after seeing all the funny cat videos on YouTube, scrolling through all the social media channels, visiting kitchen for more than 1000 times, cleaning my room and being about to start vacuuming the Sahara clean, I thought: ok, time to start with the article. Actually, it’s not that I immediately experienced an enlightening flow of inspiration, but rather I was motivated by the haunting voice of approaching deadline. On one hand, I am always fooled by this excuse that I am able to think more creatively when under time pressure. On the other hand, the sad feeling that there is not much time left (and the only one to blame is me) is not the most pleasant one. So why do people (including myself) engage in this completely irrational postponement of work, even though they consciously know they will be worse off? What are the mechanisms of this process? Is there any remedy to the problem? Maybe some research has already found relevant information that will help understand this quite confusing topic? If you can relate to the problem of procrastination, keep on reading. Why do people procrastinate? Procrastination, which sounds like being a contagious disease, is usually defined as “the avoidance of the implementation of intension”. I think that explaining this definition to students is not necessary, easier would be to say: “thing you always do, especially before the exams”. There are two ways to look at procrastination: as a personality issue or as a behaviour. While the former one may serve as a good excuse (“I am just like that”), the latter brings more hope for a change and remedy. Unfortunately, majority of the research indicates that the tendency to procrastinate is stable across time and situations and, therefore, it can be seen as a fixed personality trait. Moreover, procrastination is related to some other personality characteristics. For example, scoring low on trait conscientiousness, which is defined as “the propensity to follow socially prescribed norms for impulse control, to be goal directed, to plan, and to be able to delay gratification”, is very closely related to procrastination. So low conscientiousness= high chance for delaying your work. Moreover, neuroticism, defined as degree to which a person is prone to experience anxiety, hostility, depression, vulnerability, and impulsiveness is also related to procrastination. Lastly, procrastinators usually score low on self-esteem. Research suggests that those who are generally not that self-confident, use procrastination as a comforting excuse for why they failed. The conclusion here would be: if you have any of these personality traits, the future doesn’t look bright. This would be a sad reality and a sad perspective that you will probably procrastinate forever. Luckily, I don’t buy such explanations and prefer a more proactive and positive approach. Thus, procrastination can also be seen as a behaviour that people engage in. We can change behaviours, can’t we? The extent to which person may want to procrastinate would depend then on a context of the situation the person is in. For example, according to Parkinson’s Law, “work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion”. Therefore, the more time we perceive to have for completing given task, the more likely we will fill it with unnecessary activities. Another contextual factor: the task we are working on. There are three characteristics of a task, which make us procrastinate more: Low task value: If the task does not bring any fun or does not result in any reward, we simply turn to more enjoyable activities Expectations: If you see the task as difficult and you will need a lot of effort to compete it, you will procrastinate more Fear of failure: if you are afraid to fail on completing the task, you will probably want to postpone this unpleasant confrontation Another aspect that can influence our propensity to procrastination may lay in the availability of distractors. To put it simply: the easier it is for you to watch something on YouTube or access Facebook, the more likely you will indulge in postponing your work. Lastly, social factor can maybe count as well. If you know that others really count on you to finish your task on time and you do not want to be the bottleneck of a process, you may probably try harder to avoid procrastination. Also, if others around you engage in procrastination, you may feel that such a behaviour is a standard thing to do and, therefore, you would procrastinate even more. How to cope with procrastination? If we consider that procrastination is indeed a behaviour, it is crucial to work on changing it and creating positive habits. First of all, you have to realize why you actually procrastinate. Is there a problem with the task or maybe with your wrong perception of time? Maybe you have too many distractions available or maybe you think you can work better under time pressure? Once you realize what the reasons of your procrastination are, try to avoid factors that cause them. Here are 7 inspiring tips on how you can cope with this problematic, self-defeating behaviour. Just start: the most difficult stage of any kind of task is the beginning, and this is when most of people put the work off. However, once you start, you will see that the task is actually not that difficult as you thought it would be. Moreover, you will start feeling more self-confident about your ability to complete it and you will be more satisfied with yourself in general. This way, you can evoke positive emotions about the task you are working on. Do not be a perfectionist: people often complain that they cannot start with a task because they want to complete it so well, that even thinking about it makes them feel stuck and they just simply cannot proceed. In case you use this excuse, remember two well-known sayings: better done than perfect and perfect is an enemy of good. It is wiser to complete the work just well enough and correct it afterwards, rather than not to complete anything at all. Find a way to care: think about positive aspects of a task. For example, if you really do not like writing essays, think about the benefits such a writing exercise may bring you. You can also promise yourself a small reward for finishing the work in a one go. Work with proximal deadlines: instead of having one, vague deadline, somewhere in the future, divide task into separate deadlines for each stage of the project. This is a powerful tool, especially for those who say that working under pressure is more motivating for them. Avoid distractions: determine what your the worst distractors are and remove them from your sight or ban the access to them. For example, switch your phone on the airplane mode while you are working. Do not look up your emails or any other messages. You can also block some of the websites using a tool like StayFocued. Learn to pre-commit: nothing works better than a feeling of social pressure. Even if you complete a task just for yourself, give a promise to others that you will finish it in a given time frame. For example, if you learn for an exam, commit that you will send notes to your friend. When you have to complete an assignment, first ask someone to check it for you and give exact date of sending it. The feeling of being accountable makes a huge difference. Use the Pomodoro technique: very simple, yet powerful. Divide your task into 25-minute work periods, which are called Pomodoro (named after a kitchen timer). Each 25-minute work time is followed by 5 minutes of break. After you complete four Pomodoro’s, you can take 20 minutes of break. Such a system allows for control over your breaks and prevents minutes spent on Facebook from turning into hours. Procrastination is a very intriguing phenomenon, because it is quite unusual that people intentionally do something that makes them worse-off. Also, interestingly enough, procrastination is sometimes referred to as the student syndrome, as it is very common among undergraduates and has been examined mainly using student samples. At the same time, it seems that a few good time management’s tricks can help a lot alleviate the problem. I will study this phenomenon more thoroughly, surely making use of these techniques. I encourage you to apply them too, especially in the upcoming exam week! #procrastination #productivity #studentproblems

  • Engulfed in the Gulf

    Once the cradle of civilization, the Persian Gulf region might today be described as a powder keg ready to deflagrate: with Iraq slowly consumed by its war against the Islamic State, the stage only sees two major contenders, namely Iran and Saudi Arabia. Most Western knowledge about the delicate political balances in the area can only be traced back to 1991, when a US-led coalition first landed in Kuwait during the First Gulf War. However, as it often happens, the issues that affect the region have much deeper and older roots. The two countries have had a long diplomatic history, frequently alternating friendship and hostility, but recent events caused the tensions between them to escalate to an unprecedented extent. The Iranian nuclear deal is not helping the negotiations, and is instead seen as a threat by many of the main Middle Eastern powers – Israel in particular – and many wonder whether a war is something we should worry about in the foreseeable future. But let us stop for a moment and revise what we currently know on the subject. Iran and Saudi Arabia are very different in almost all aspects: the only thing they have in common is Islam as the official religion, but that’s about it. Even in religion, the two countries follow two different paths: Iran has a predominant Shi’a majority, while Saudi Arabia leads the Sunni world by hosting the two sacred mosques of Medina and Mecca. The main difference between the two currents lies in the ancient dispute of Prophet Muhammad’s succession: according to the Shi’a, the title of Khalifa (leader of the Muslim world) should have been inherited by the Prophet’s family, following the principle of direct succession; the Sunnis (followers of the Sunna, one of the sacred texts of Islam), who compose around 90% of the overall Muslim population, argue that the Khalifa should be invested by the religious community, impersonated by the Imams. But there is more than a religious dispute at play. Since the crowning of King ʿAbd al-ʿAzīz Āl Saʿūd in 1932, Saudi Arabia enjoyed a relative stability up to the present day: it is now one of the last examples of absolute monarchy in the world, where the royal family enjoys almost unlimited power and does not hesitate to exert it when needed. On the other hand, Iran experienced much more political turbulence in its recent history: as a matter of fact, the country as we know it today was born in the aftermath of a revolution that took place in 1978, that overthrew the monarchy led by the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi and installed an Islamic republic in its place, ruled by an elected government but under the advice of an ayatollah – a religious guide. Despite the difference in religious path  and government form, the relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia before the revolution was friendly: the Shah and the then King Faisal used to be pen friends, exchanging opinions on matters of government and administration; in particular, the Shah often urged the Saudi monarch to follow the example of the more liberal Iran and guarantee more freedom to his people – especially the women – but to no avail. However, after the revolution, the newly risen ayatollah Khomeini rejected any offer of new diplomatic relations with the Saudis, defining them “ungodly” and “heretics”. The hostile climate kept on intensifying as Iranian pilgrims who had traveled to Saudi Arabia for the Hajj ritual took part in several violent demonstrations that resulted in fights with the Saudi security forces and hundreds of losses. The dramatic turn of events put an end to the dialogue between the two countries until later. After the First Gulf War, there have been several attempts at reconciliation, in particular during the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) meeting of 1997, where the two countries agreed to an economic and cultural cooperation within the context of OPEC, of which both are members. Negotiations teams pose at the UN headquater, the venue of the nuclear talks in Vienna, Austria on July 14, 2015. Today, the political balances have changed once more: the threat posed by the Islamic State just west of its borders as well as the stance taken by Saudi Arabia towards the Shi’a Muslims in the Arabian Peninsula – that resulted in the Saudi military intervention against the Houthi militia in Yemen and in the executions of 47 people on the 2nd of January, including Nimr al-Nimr, Shi’a preacher – have made Iran wary. The so-called “nuclear deal”, and agreement between Iran and the P5+1 countries (the permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany) and the European Union for the reduction of Iranian nuclear facilities in return for the lifting of all nuclear-related sanctions might represent Teheran’s way of preparing for what is to come: the funds and assets unfrozen by the deal may be used to finance military efforts, if need be. The truth is, both Iran and Saudi Arabia are realizing that as the West gradually loses its grip on the Middle Est, the Muslim world might soon be in need of a new political and military leader, in order to finally achieve some stability in the region. However, a large scale conflict seems an unlikely scenario. First of all, there is no proper casus belli, a real reason to wage war, although of course it would be easy for either side to manufacture one, if that was the intention. Second but not less relevant, an outright war at the present state wouldn’t benefit any of the participants: the inevitable damages to the oil wells and pipes in both countries would significantly jeopardize the economy of the region, not to mention that the progressive weakening of both armies might tempt other players to take advantage of the situation to further their own interests and break the status quo, which is something neither side wants. Third, there are higher interests at play: both countries are backed by global powers (such as the US in the Saudi case and Russia and China for Iran) that have every reason to avoid further agitations in the region. In conclusion, I wouldn’t expect any major conflict to break out between Saudi Arabia and Iran for the time being. Rather, they will try to consolidate their position around the Persian Gulf by means of proxy wars, aimed at weakening their opponent without exposing themselves: as a matter of fact, both countries are already (more or less openly) subsidizing different sides in the Syrian civil war, and the outcome might prove decisive to resolve the dispute. The winning faction is likely to end up in an alliance with its supporter, and a Saudi-Syrian or Iranian-Syrian axis would perhaps be powerful enough to assert its dominance in the region.

  • Big Money and the Beautiful Game

    Premier League fans around the world will tell you: this season is shaping up to be the most exciting and unpredictable since the league’s inception in 1992. Last year’s champions, Chelsea, languish four points above the relegation zone, having sacked their seemingly invincible manager, Jose Mourinho, the self-anointed ‘Special One’, after he lost nine games out of the first 16. Meanwhile, Manchester United, the most successful club of the Premier League era, have floundered under the management of Louis van Gaal, the man who led the Netherlands to the semi-finals of the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Despite having spent just shy of £262m (€339m) on new players under the Dutchman, United play a style of football about as exciting as watching paint dry, and look likely to miss out on Champions League qualification. Arsenal, a team that last won the league the year this profanely-titled track by Eamon went to number one, once again have a realistic chance of becoming champions, thanks to the brilliance of master assist creator, Mesut Ozil. The most remarkable story of the season, however, is that of Leicester City, a team that this time last year sat in the relegation zone (the bottom three), and now lies joint top with Arsenal after 22 games. Their star striker, Jamie Vardy – a 29-year-old who played semi-professionally until 2012 – has scored in 11 consecutive games, breaking a record previously held by Ruud van Nistelrooy, while Algerian midfielder Riyad Mahrez (pictured), a player Leicester City signed in 2014 for just €450,000, has supplied the chances. Such a thrilling start to the season has come at a price, however. The Premier League is ultra-competitive – no fixture can be considered a formality – but presently the league has no domestic titans of the likes of Bayern Munich, Barcelona, Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain, and not a single player in the FIFA/FIFPro World XI. In the last four seasons, English teams have made it into the quarter finals of the Champions League on just three occasions. But that might be about to change. TV Rights Bonanza Having sold the domestic TV rights for 2016-19 for the equivalent of £1.7bn (€2.2bn) per season – an increase of 71% on the previous three-year deal – the Premier League is close to completing the sale of overseas TV rights for 2016-19 for an expected £1.08bn (€1.4bn) per season – a 45% increase on the previous period. For some perspective, when the Premier League began in 1992, the league earned less than £8m (€10.4m) a year from overseas TV rights. It is the value of such broadcast deals that have pushed Premier League revenues in 2013-14 higher than those of Spain’s La Liga and Italy’s Serie A combined, and more than £1bn (€1.3bn) higher than those of Germany’s Bundesliga. Last year’s Deloitte Football Money League – a ranking of the world’s football clubs by revenue – placed eight Premier League clubs in the top 20 and 14 in the top 30, with the prediction that these figures will grow even further with the new broadcast deals. The most lucrative game in world football isn’t the Champions League final or the Copa del Rey; with the winner gaining promotion to the Premier League from English football’s second tier, last year’s Championship play-off final was worth £120m (€155.6m). This year’s final will be worth even more. Increasing Revenues, Increasing Competition An old joke goes, “What’s the quickest way to become a millionaire? Be a billionaire and buy a football club”. Despite huge revenues, Premier League clubs rarely turn a profit. The 2013-14 season was an outlier, with clubs making pre-tax profits of £187m (€242.4m) combined – the first since 1999. But it has been predicted that with the success of cost control regulations and the bumper broadcast deals, some of the risk normally associated with investment in Premier League clubs is diminishing. Booming revenues can only enhance competition within the league, with traditionally weaker sides investing in higher-quality players in order to avoid relegation. But it is at the elite level that fans will be hoping some of the money finds its way. If the Premier League is to enhance – or even retain – its reputation, the biggest teams – Manchester United, Manchester City, Chelsea, Arsenal – have to appeal to the world’s very best players by showing that they can compete in Europe on a regular basis.

  • New Year, Old Problems

    2016 has not had a fresh start. The year begun in the same way 2015 ended: the Chinese stock market plunged once again, as did the oil price. The Dutch stock exchange experienced the worst first week in its history; many others suffered heavy losses. There is a market belief that January predicts how the rest of the year will go. If this is the case, 2016 is looking all but rosy. But there appears to be more at play then just bad omens. George Soros, a well-known economist and predictor of past recessions, has recently compared the current global situation to that at the start of the financial crisis. Many others agree with him that the current economic climate looks rather dangerous. Are we really are on the brink of a new recession and if so, where will this trouble come from? In this article I discuss some of the issues that are distressing markets around the world and assess whether or not a new crisis is really just around the corner. At the centre of any recession lies slowing growth. The World Bank, the OECD and several other institutions revised down their forecasts for global GDP growth this year. Slower global growth has many causes varying from country to country but overall three related issues are considered the most important. First, global trade is seeing a significant collapse. The CPB world trade monitor reported mostly decreases in trade volume for most of 2015. Another measure of trade, The Baltic Dry Index (which measures shipping costs for commodities) has been falling rapidly since August 2015. Trade and global GDP historically have moved together, the apparent breakdown of this relation is worrying investors. Secondly, lower demand from emerging economies is depressing growth. Ever since the crisis, emerging economies have pulled the world economy forward while the developed economies slowly recovered.  As argued in this article, that chapter ended last year and a new leader of growth has yet to stand up. Thirdly, geopolitical worries are cumulating around the world, threating the stability of economies. In the Middle East, Sunni and Shi’i tensions are again reaching high levels. In Europe, worries about the future of the Schengen treaty and a possible Brexit have only intensified this year. All these development fuel uncertainty in the global markets. Though the above shows plenty of cause for concern, it does not directly imply disaster on the scale of the financial crisis. What makes Mr. Soros link the current situation to that of 2008 is China’s massive pile of debt. As the Chinese economy grew exponentially over the years, so did its credit consumption. A recent study by McKinsey found that from 2007 to 2014, Chinese debt to GDP went up from 158% to 282%. A number even more staggering when taking into account the pace at which GDP grew over that same period. As the Chinese economy slows down, the sustainability of this debt becomes more and more worrisome. Economic theory suggest that as an economic boom comes to an end, the financial speculation (such as the taking on of more and more debt) it has fuelled eventually becomes unsustainable and a credit crisis follows. The moment this debt bubble burst is called the “Minsky moment”; named after Hymen Minsky, an economist known for his work on financial market instability. At the start of the crisis in 2008, the term Minsky moment suddenly became popular again and a quick google search for 2016 shows some regained attention for the topic. 2016 could prove to be China’s Minsky moment. To draw a final link to 2008, the McKinsey report finds that half of all Chinese debt is linked to the real estate market; a market known to be a breeding ground for financial bubbles. As it seems, Mr. Soros comparison to 2008 is valid and a true cause for concern. Yet there are several footnotes to the Chinese situation that distinguish it from the US circa 2008. First, the Chinese government has a firm grip on the economy and both the power and the means to intervene were something to happen. Most of the outstanding debt is held up with firms and financial institutions. Where they to collectively default on their debt, China could bail them out by making use of the massive amounts of reserves they hold. Were these measures not enough to avert the credit crunch from turning into a recession, the Chinese government could help the broader economy by devaluing the Yuan and improving competitiveness. Noted should be that this last scenario is quite treacherous. A devaluation to support competitiveness has the risk of triggering devaluations by competitors (most other Asian countries),which could result in a nasty currency war. A second reason why fear for a repetition of 2008 appears to be overblown is that the Chinese financial system is fairly isolated. This means that were a credit bubble to burst, there is little risk of it spreading to other markets (as was the case in the US). Where a Chinese financial crisis to happen, this confinement will limit its effect on the global economy. But only partly: many countries and firms all over the world are heavily dependent on Chinese demand, which will undoubtedly take a hit in case of a crisis. As we have seen over the last year, even a slight weakening of the Chinese economy has strong effects around the globe; imagine what a full out recession would do. A recent survey by Bank of America Merill Lynch found that 52% of interviewed fund managers considered a Chinese recession the main risk to their portfolio. This article argued that these worries are not unfounded: the situation in China remains about as questionable as the data supplied by the Chinese government. However, comparisons to the situation of 2008 appear to be overblown when taking a closer look. The situation is undoubtedly worrisome, but there are enough reasons to believe the government will be able to counter a large default on debt and prevent a recession. The world economy right now is in a feeble state, growing but not convincingly. Yet it is still going to need a heavy push were it to fall back into a recession. The bursting of the Chinese debt bubble does not yet seem a strong enough candidate for this job.

  • From Bits to QUbits: A New Era of Computing (Part 1)

    2500 BC, Babylonia was using the abacus for simple arythmetic tasks. Ca. 150-100 BC, the Antikythera mechanism was used for astrological and calendrical purposes. In the 11th century, during the Song dynasty, Su Song invented the astronomical clock tower. In 1642, Blaise Pascal (aged 19) was pioneering the field of computing, creating one of the first mechanical computers. Two centuries later, Charles Babbage invented the first programmable analogue computer, which in today’s terms could be labeled the premier “Turing-complete” machine. February 1946 saw the birth of ENIAC (Electronic Numberical Integrator and Computer) and marked a unique breakthrough in history – the “renaissance” of computing. The following 75 years have probably seen the fastest developments of all times, and from all points of view. They are, in absolute terms, a small fraction in the world’s history pages, but in relative terms, the reinvention of the wheel – technologically speaking. From month to month, from year to year, the power of computational machines kept growing exponentially – until today. Let’s take a look at how computers have changed, as well as how they’ve changed our lives – forever. (1940s): “Computers in the future might weight no more than 1.5 tons.” – Popular Mechanics Thousands of years of trials, of new discoveries, of an unimaginably sheer number of contributors from all over the world – Babylonians, Egyptians, Romans, Byzantines, Arabs, Persians – all sorts of nations, cultures and civilizations, have culminated in the 20th century. Its early years saw a tremendous amount of innovation in computing, all facilitated by the recent adjacent technological advancements. Communication has quickly become a complex system of integrated parts, and computers have had their fair contribution. What is a computer? A computer is an electronic device that manipulates information or data. It has the ability to store, retrieve, and process those. Modern times have allowed us to become users of many more applications of computers than initially predicted (if predicted at all), and did not limit so far the domains where they can be of use. For the regular person, today’s computers (and, thank God, the creation of the internet) make it possible to enjoy news, to keep in contact with loved ones, to play video games, to read and write, to compile handy information… The list of possibilities goes on. One of the most feared expressions in modern times is ‘The computer is down.’ – Norman R.A.  I personally get very excited whenever I think about all of them. Computers have quickly become a defining part of our lives. As time passed, the definition of a “computer” has broadened extensively, while they spread everywhere. As you can imagine, it’s hard to keep track of their number, but some estimate that personal computers alone account for over 2.5 billion units in use at the moment. Even with hundreds of thousands of discarded electronics filling the junkyards every week, numbers grow exponentially all the time. In the same light, the world’s internet penetration (or the number of internet users) is growing at a fast pace every second. Compared to 1995, when less than 1% of the world’s population was connected, nowadays over 40% of all Earth’s individuals have access to the internet. According to a recent study by the McKinsey & Co. Global Institute, over 46% of World’s businesses are automated. On a macro scale, all these figures may indicate a sad reality, given that we have just entered the year 2016, but actually, humanity has already passed all possible milestones. Cognitive Computing Remember all the possibilities I was telling you about just now? Some people did not stop at fantasizing about revolutionizing the world through computing; these people made it reality. For practical reasons, many (of the already so many) small contributions and intermediary steps in the computer’s evolution will be ignored, and we will make jump to the next stop: cognitive computing. Cognitive computing is a form of machine learning, whose decisions are made on past experiences, cases, and models. Whilst constantly learning, a cognitive computer takes into account all known past occurences of a certain event and perfects its rationale with every new data set. Dozens of servers act as a neural network (millions of little nuclea, just like neurons), the best possible outcome being computed for any given task. This is, in fact, a very important aspect of cognitive computational machines. They do not offer the “right” alternative, but the best one. A CC synthesizes all available information about a concept X, and on top of that, it provides the user with insights and it makes context computable. Pretty sweet, right? What makes cognitive computing beautiful is the dynamic nature of information. The status quo changes constantly, and so does data. The world is a complex, information-rich mechanism and CC has opened up new ways of solving both highly sensitive problems and as-old-as-time dilemmas. Its inputs comprise complex, ambiguous, and uncertain entries, while it always deals with conflicting scenarios. Just like a human brain, cognitive computers learn by experience or instruction, adapting to any situation and even influencing behavior. 2015 has seen some major breakthroughs in terms of artificial inteligence. I was recently writing on the same topic that, last year, more and more machines almost passed the Turing test, in a period I would characterise as ‘revolutionary’. A Turing test, first developed in 1950 by the British scientist Alan Turing, is a test of a machine’s ability to exhibit intelligent behaviour equivalent to – or indistinguishable from – that of a human. Just think about it! There are hundreds (if not thousands) of applications that even I, an outsider from the technological world, can think of. From medicine to defence, and from transportation to building, cognitive computing introduces… the future. Completely autonomous artificial intelligence is still far away from the present, but recent years have seen incredible developments. And the future is made of sweet promises – Apple’s Siri, Microsoft’s Cortana, IPSoft’s Amelia (which has recently upgraded to its 2.0 version), Google’s deep learning program, innovations in quantum and cognitive computing, all have been and will be greatly influencing our day-to-day lives. “Give fish to a man, and feed him for a day. Teach him how to fish, and feed him for life.” This old adage was never more actual, because in fact, that’s how artificial intelligence is growing. In that sense, we need to teach them – the AI machines – the best and in the best fashion: to act for the greater good. IBM Revolutionizes Cognitive Computing IBM, the IT giant, has pioneered the CC industry. Its WATSON and CELIA supercomputers have passed more milestones, technologically speaking, in the past decades than technology had evolved in a couple of thousands of years. The systems answer to fairly complex questions asked in natural language, all powered by a crazy architecture: 90 IBM Power 750 servers, with a 16 Terabytes of Random-Access Memory (RAM). WATSON can process 500 GB of information per second, or the equivalent of a million books. There are dozens of applications already in use, but I will get back to them in the upcoming article. However, I would love leaving you with one example that touched me. Noteworthy are all of them, but one has a certain charge on me: Medicine. IBM Watson Healthcare is the program with probably the biggest potential, which has just announced the supercomputer’s newest breakthrough: its ability to see. After partnering with top tier companies in the med-care sector, IBM’s Watson has achieved the ability to offer superior medical advice based on records of thousands of different occurrences for a particular case. Think of cancer and how much easier would be, maybe not to cure it, but to slow it down and to prevent its advancement. Based on context, insights and a lot of unstructured other data, WATSON is able to tailor medical advice for basically any type of patient, coming as the handiest tool a doctor could have. All different individual characteristics and personal medical records will be blended into the best possible outcome for the patient. It is simply amazing! Hopefully I have offered you some food for thought. Hopefully more and more people will get engaged in the field and will contribute with as little as they can towards bettering the world. Hopefully you will help solve some of the most fundamental problems humanity has! The future is here. Until next time, do not stop dreaming and always seek for innovations! Part 2 of the article will follow on the 31st of January and will deal with the other superconcept of today’s computing: QUANTUM COMPUTING. Stay tuned! Please refer below for a list of additional literature on Cognitive Computing: http://www.research.ibm.com/software/IBMResearch/multimedia/Computing_Cognition_WhitePaper.pdf http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/what-is-watson.html http://www.cnet.com/news/ibms-truenorth-processor-mimics-the-human-brain/ http://www.kmworld.com/Articles/News/News-Analysis/Cognitive-computing-Beyond-the-hype-97685.aspx http://thefuturesagency.com/2015/12/15/celia-the-next-generation-of-ibms-watson-must-watch-video/

  • New Year’s Resolutions: A Reminder on the Body-Mind Aspect

    “The most important relationship in your life is the relationship you have with yourself. Because no matter what happens, you will always be with yourself.” – Diane von Furstenberg Unfortunately, we often neglect ourselves and, moreover, gain some biased opinions on things that are supposed to make our living better. Our bodies should express human qualities such as dedication, and not modern beauty standards. I felt motivated to write about this topic since I consider that I gained a wise perspective on it from experience. Isn’t there something missing in your life? The idolatry for training People are often preoccupied with their looks. That’s for sure. But is it this, or the mere purpose of doing something for ourselves that should bring us to the gym? Many people feel “dragged” to work out by a desire to look better, not by a passion for the activity. Do you really think that people who work out almost daily come home and say “I made it today as well.”? Sport is about developing a passion, which in addition brings major benefits to you, rather than just a better looks. The psychological change that you will experience is the greatest one of all. If you become dedicated, you will eventually reach a point when you look at yourself in the mirror while training and realize how far you have gone. You will stop caring about your looks anymore and you will rather start measuring the amplitude and explosion of your movements. Technique is the norm; do not lie to yourself when executing a movement! We often tend to arrange our posture in such a way that our movements become simplified, losing a part of their benefit and, more importantly, hurting ourselves. Repeated workouts that lack good technique or just a mere wrong movement can sometimes lead to problems. However, even if you get injuries (this is quite common and can happen at any point), you will be amazed about how smart our bodies are in healing themselves. And in the end, there is something to learn from the injuries that you get. I got a torn meniscus in my 3rd year of going to the gym and I learnt that you must have patience and help your body recover. I had to avoid doing what I love for more than half a year. On the other hand, sport has helped me stabilize and ameliorate a scoliosis that I have since childhood due to proper technique. What happens in the body? Among its many benefits, exercising activates the lymphatic system, which is engaged in fighting infections in your body. It gives your immunity and is responsible for regenerating tissues, draining stagnant liquids and detoxifying your whole body by eliminating foreign substances. Unlike the circulatory system, the lymphatic system does not have a pump. Muscular movement and intensified breathing sets lymph in motion and helps it flow through the nodes, therefore, cleaning up your whole system. Developing more muscular fiber can speed up your metabolism and therefore, help you lose weight and get lean easier. If you want to really push your limits in terms of training, speed up your metabolism and go a step further, HIIT (High Intensity Interval Training) is the solution. HIIT is a type of training that involves short periods of intense anaerobic exercise together with short periods of recovery in between them. After having done numerous classes and with a year and a half of constant training behind, I jumped into this and I became addicted to it. The main benefit that you get from HIIT is the development of white muscular fiber (fast twitch). This type of fiber is the one which is believed to speed up your metabolism and therefore, make you burn more body fat even you are done with the workout. In general, it is easier to develop our red type of muscular fiber (slow twitch).  Red fiber is found in proportion of 80% of our muscles and is characterized by slow sustained movement (there we go with the name of “slow” twitch), whereas white fiber makes up for the rest of muscular spread and is developed through short powerful movements. If your goal is to boost your metabolism, then remember that HIIT is believed to be among the most efficient types of training in developing the fast twitch. A piece of advice Do not be discouraged if you do not picture yourself pulling a bar or if you do not feel convinced about HIIT. You can as well opt for group classes. If these do not work for you, running is usually a really good hit. In case you get bored by working out alone and feel the need to be distracted, you can of course choose to go for other sports, such as tennis. You have to find the form of physical activity that makes you smile while you work out. Next time when you work out, remember  it should make you happy! Do not forget to smile! As an additional, more “technical” advice, I would recommend you focusing on whatever you like, but to not forget to practice sports that are at the opposite pole of what you usually do. This is because one of the biggest mistakes we make is that we often insist on training our big groups of muscles and neglect the tiny muscles that cover and support our bones. For this, Yoga and Pilates are considered the most effective. I love classes that involve a great variety of fast ample movements. As I am very energetic, I cannot lie on a mat. However, I often opt for a Yoga class for a change, due to the reason mentioned above. Does physical activity make us better learners? A healthy mind in a healthy body “The minute you get away from fundamentals – whether its proper technique, work ethic or mental preparation – the bottom can fall out of your game, your schoolwork, your job, whatever you’re doing.” ― Michael Jordan “Chasing deadlines and running late to lectures are the most strenuous forms of exercise students engage in.” Leaving jokes behind, there is quite some evidence brought by research about the fact that athletes make better students. Although you might think that sport occupies a part of your time, which could have been used for things that you need to accomplish, the benefits you get from dedicating that time to physical activity are greater. Physical activity puts you in a competition with yourself, encouraging you to push your limits in different aspects of your life. The desire to succeed in a sport or to improve yourself physically can translate into a desire to succeed in other aspects of your life, including academics. Sport is a great relief for the mind, keeping it distracted from any other issues that surround one’s life. It represents a perfect break if you feel stuck when working on something. After an exercising session, you come back to work with your mind fresh and you are able to see things from a more objective perspective. On top of that, a sustained affinity for exercising can make us become self-disciplined and develop an ability to dedicate to something. These traits can help us in our daily life, making us more organized and focused. The importance of nutrition People refer more to diet rather than nutrition. Not everybody probably knows that the words “diet” and “nutrition” are synonyms. The concept of nutrition nowadays seems to be perceived really different from the one of diet. Dieting often turns into something negative, because of the fact that people tend to adopt hunger, not a healthier way of eating. This actually backfires as our smart bodies go into an “emergency mode” and preserve fat in order to prepare itself for a longer period without nutrients. In addition, counting calories can be seen as irrelevant, since we all have different metabolisms and therefore, very different ways of burning calories. But going back to an earlier point that I made, should we eat clean strictly for our looks when there are indeed far way more important reasons for it? Let’s picture ourselves for a second the shelves in the supermarket. They are full of different products and probably we will never even get to try all of them. Now imagine how the supermarkets looked like at the beginning of the last century: they were far simpler, selling aliments that nowadays we consider “basic”. It is quite scary if we start thinking about the fact that we are actually part of the first generation, which has been raised in the spirit of an industrial production of food. We should check the label of any product that we put in our shopping cart, since even the most “harmless” products nowadays actually contain harmful chemicals. The best way to go is to choose aliments which are as close as possible to their natural source. I find this video very useful in explaining more about the reasons behind this and I would recommend you watching it. In addition to this, it is very important to be aware of the fact that our bodies need to maintain an electrolyte balance. Electrolytes are important nutrients for our bodies as they play key roles in sending electrical impulses that influence our heart, muscles and nerves. They also play an important role in fluid balance and hydration in our cells, tissues, and our muscles. In severe cases, people even die of an electrolyte misbalance. These electrolytes are represented by a number of chemicals: sodium, calcium, potassium, chlorine, phosphate and magnesium. Some of them, such as sodium, are found in nearly any product. However, it is in our responsibility to make sure we get just enough of the rest. You can find a list with aliments rich in electrolytes here. In a nutshell, we should not perceive food as a mere response to hunger or start under-nourishing ourselves in order to lose weight. We must go beyond this perception and understand that having healthy eating habits should constitute our overall goal. Sleep & Hydration “College students are the most sleep deprived.” We hear this quite often. Many students complain that they have so much to do or that they leave things on the last moment, that they sometimes convict themselves to sleeping 2 hours a night. In some cases it might be necessary to cut off our sleeping hours in order to meet deadlines. However, the reason why some of us need those hours is, perhaps, actually that they are not actually working efficiently. What should motivate you to become more efficient or in any case, get those 8 hours of sleep, lies in the idea that the brain is actually cleaning itself from toxins during our sleep. If we do not allow it to have enough time for the cleaning, chemicals will remain in our brain and impede us from being productive. Cleaning our bodies is also the reason for drinking water. Drinking liquids is the main way through which we can cleanse our organs. Your liver is working hard the whole day detoxifying harmful substances and it needs the help of liquids in order to function at its best. We are too often giving rather than taking energy from our activities… The last point I want to make is about mindfulness. Many people are not intrinsically healthy. The worst part is that they abstain from exposing this to the people around them. It is very hard to fight with our own thoughts as it is the case that we always agree with ourselves. Mental disorders are a serious issue and can prevail at any point in one’s life. It is crucial that we do not neglect our unhappiness and frustrations and start changing something. These can turn into mental diseases, which will require you to “work a lot with yourself” and seek the advice of an expert. If you got into this phase, it is first important to admit that you do have a problem. The next step is to talk to your close ones and to avoid keeping your negative thoughts and emotions inside. This can only make things worse. You must get out of your life the people/activities/places that actually bring you in bad mental states before you can further move on. In the end, everything is solvable. The most important thing is to become dedicated to finding your balance, before being dedicated to anything else.

  • The invisible (financial) leaders of the world: the Rothschild Family

    The Rothschild family is a wealthy and a quite mysterious family descending from Mayer Amschel Rothschild. He was a German Jew who established his first banking business in Frankfurt in the 1760s. Mayer Amschel Rothschild held a prestigious position of court Jew, meaning a Jewish banker who handled the finances of European royalty and nobility. Mayer Amschel Rothschild managed to hand on his wealth and established an international banking family through his five sons, who continued their financial banking career in Paris, Vienna, Naples and Frankfurt. The Rothschild family are considered to have made the largest private fortune in the world. According to a lot of people they have this astronomic fortune since the 19th century. Today, Rothschild businesses are made on a smaller scale comparing to what they were throughout the 19th century, although they still encompass a diverse range of fields such as real estate, financial services, wine and lots of charities. The prominent member of the Rothschild family nowadays is Jacob Rothschild, an investment banker who is also chairman of RIT (Rothschild Investment Trust) Capital Partners plc. It is one of the largest investments trusts in the world quoted on the London Stock Exchange. It seems now that there is nothing wrong with this family. It is just a very rich family who has a lot of expertise in the financial world. One just has to be lucky to born in this family to be prosperous and heritage not only the fortune but also the outstanding investment skills. However, there are a lot of conspiracy theories about this family. I would like to emphasize a couple of these theories and it is up to you to decide whether they can be regarded as true or as utter nonsense. One of the most famous theories is that the Rothschild family owns almost all the central banks in the world and destroys everyone who tries to stop them. To explain where this theory came from, we go back to the founding father of the family, Mayer Amschel Rothschild. He was a gold dealer and keeper. The wealthy people and royalty brought their gold to Rothschild in exchange for a document, which stated the amount of gold that was stored. After a couple of years, Mayer Amschel Rothschild had quite a lot of these documents and he used these documents to do transactions without needing to withdraw the gold. The vicious Mayer Amschel Rothschild saw that the stored gold barely was claimed by anyone because the documents worked like banknotes. This gave Mayer Amschel Rothschild the idea to lend out the gold to third parties in exchange for a high interest rate. He was therefore the first ‘banker’ but he could be considered as a criminal as well, because he broke the trust of the people who stored the gold. The most important of the five sons was Nathan Mayer Rothschild. Driven by the success of his father, he was obsessed by the wish to set up a central bank with the right to create money. He used the Bank of England that was founded in 1694 as an example. That situation was the ‘central’ bank for the British government, which was controlled by King Willem III. This bank was founded because they promised Willem III to become king if he gave the influential bankers the right to create money. Nathan Mayer Rothschild got control of the Bank of England in 1814 due to manipulations of the stock exchanges during the fall of the Napoleon Bonaparte Empire. His famous saying also from that period is: ‘Give me control of a nation’s money, and I care not who makes the laws’. The grandchildren of Nathan and other descendants continued Nathan’s work to get control of almost all the central banks worldwide, including the Federal Reserve in 1913. They are doing this by buying all the governments bonds of all the countries in the world with use of the money they create (!) by themselves. The government deficits are so big at the moment that they can never be paid back. The governments have to pay interests of these bonds and if you consider that this is already going on for 250 years and there are almost 200 countries, you could think of the enormous staggering wealth of the Rothschild family. It is so big that it is even difficult to present it in numbers but it is estimated on $490.000.000.000.000.000. This means that if they shared it with everyone on this planet, each person would have $70.000.000. Their wealth gives the family a lot of power, so that indeed they do not have to worry about who makes the law. This exactly reflects the idea presented by Nathan Mayer Rothschild. They are the biggest creditors in the world and they leave whole (poor) countries in tears. Another theory is that everyone who tries to stop them and their enormous interest revenues will not make it alive. Examples are the assassination of the presidents Lincoln, Garfield and Kennedy. Even a recent example of another theory is the missing flight MH370. According to International Business Times, on board of flight MH370, there were four owners of a patent of a microprocessor used for military radar systems established by the company Freescale. The total amount of owners of the patent was five persons. You can say that it is coincidence but the fifth owner is Jacob Rothschild. 16 other employees of Freescale were also on board of flight MH370… Furthermore, there are conspiracy theories that the Rothschild family started wars in the countries where they did not have the controlling power yet, such as Libya, Iraq and other Arabic countries. These countries have central banks that are not controlled by the Rothschild family. It could be the case that the United States invaded these countries for that reason. However, they needed a reason to invade a country like Iraq without making it look suspicious. Some people say that they this by the 9/11 attacks. Lots of people are convinced that 9/11 was indeed an inside job. The leader of Iraq and the leader of Libya, Hussein and Khadaffi were also killed because they wanted to sell their oil in Diran (Arabic currency) instead of US Dollars, which is a downfall for the Federal Reserve if they had the chance to do it. Another thing that is often related to the Rothschild family is Illuminati. This is a group of families including the Rothschild family and, for instance, also the Rockefeller family, who calls themselves enlightened. They control a lot of influential organizations such as the Vatican, United Nations, the World Bank, CIA, NSA and NASA. The illuminati are working for almost a decade to create a New World Order. This means that the world only has a single government who controls everything and the normal people do not have any rights anymore. People say that Illuminati have no respect for how the world is in its current state and that they want to do everything to change it. After reading this, your view of the current world situation may have changed. Is it really that Carlos Slim, Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg are poor fellas compared to the Rothschild family? Is it really true that the Rothschild family caused wars and killed presidents of the United States? Is it really the case that there are people who want to create a new world order? Is it really so that the most influential companies are actually corrupt? Many people are intrigued by the mystery and legends that arose around this family and they attempt to investigate what is actually the truth. The conspiracy theories are very diverse. Personally I do not know what to believe, due to the amount of different theories. Some theories are quite believable where other ones are very unlikely. What do you think?

  • Who are your representatives at the FEB? An insight into our faculty student council

    Young minds often challenge well established patterns. Education aims at stimulating these free minds to grasp knowledge in order to further prove that there can be room for better. This idea has been clearly reflected in the democratization of the European universities, which found its starting point in 1968 in Paris after massive student strikes at the University of Nanterre and Sorbonne. Following the Paris strikes, only one year after, University of Amsterdam students were the next to raise the stance towards a more democratic teaching environment, by occupying the Maagdenhuis building. This strong desire of making students’ voice heard has taken the shape of a new faculty body, the student council. Nowadays, following multiple laws given by Dutch ministers, each and every university in the Netherlands has to establish at least a student council, whose members vote and give advice on policies advocated by the board of the university or the faculty. Thus, we, as the FSR FEB, represent an influential body with controlling power at our faculty. We are dedicated to ensuring that the FEB is constantly improving and to tracking down any issues that you encounter. But what are we exactly taking care of? How are we specifically contributing to our faculty? In order to answer these questions, let us introduce ourselves. To begin with, Samantha van den Hoek is our Chairman, the first among equals. She is the voice and guidance of the Council, constantly up to date with FEB issues and actively engaged in any interesting topic that comes in front of her eyes. Among her multiple activities, Samantha is mainly preoccupied with the smooth implementation of the New Bachelor’s model, closely collaborating with the Board of the Faculty towards establishing the new curriculum. Our Vice-Chairman, Nickardo Postma, strives to consolidate our team’s strengths and collaborates with Swiss Jurriens in order to follow and improve the implementation of Blended Learning. Under Blended Learning, the curriculum of most courses is to be modified by introducing digital learning tools, such as short videos and a testing platform. Victor Oprea is the Chairman of the Education and Research Committee. Besides that, he focuses on improving our current Honours Programme and collaboration with the study advisers. On the opposite pole, Rinus van Grunsven is the Chairman of the Organization and Media Committee, managing the plans and projects proposed there. Moreover, he is devoted to assuring that the infrastructure of our campus meets the expectations of our faculty’s community. Tijmen de Vos represents the eyes of our council and, together with Swiss and Mourad Farahat, is truly engaged in gathering input from FEB students through the Think Tank and Coffee Time projects. These two projects are held really often throughout the year, encouraging you to speak up your mind about the faculty. Tijmen is also keeping track of a new bachelor’s program, PPLE. In order to keep ourselves connected with the central level of the UvA, Mink Perée was named as our Central Student Council representative, who now mainly ensures that our council becomes informed about decisions and news that concern our university as a whole. The finances of our council are closely supervised by our newly appointed Treasurer, Ioana Nicolau. On top of that, Ioana works together with Mink and the rest of the Council in order to organize campus activities that blast a feeling of community throughout our faculty. For example, we were happy to delight you with cookies during Christmas time! Moreover the piano in the E-hall seemed to be making a lot of students joyful. Further on, Mourad is keeping an eye on very diverse projects, but is mainly busy with research on the Socratic Teaching model, together with Tijmen. The Socratic Teaching model consists of an open discussion about current global issues, which aims at improving your motivation, discussion skills and study results. The distinctive feature of this discussion is that you will be able to leave out the theory and discuss the practical implications of different matters. The OER (Onderwijs- en Examenregeling – Teaching and Examination Regulations) of our faculty and especially midterms are in the attention of Mick Fruytier. We revise the points of the OER every year in January and we give an advice on the points we do not agree with. The goal is to cooperate with the board of the faculty in order to make sure that changes in the teaching and examination regulations are appropriate and please our student body. Last but not least, all of our aims would be hard to attain without our Secretary, Renée Bijvoets. She writes the minutes of our meetings and manages different organizational matters. Curious about how we work? You can always join our weekly meetings. They are officially open to the public, so if you wish to join our discussions, don’t hesitate! In case you would like to become part of the Student Council, be prepared for the elections taking place in May. At the moment we are doing our best in defending your rights and interests, but, of course, we cannot possibly know everything that concerns you. This is why it is very important that you communicate us any change that you would like to see at the FEB! In the end, we represent and shape your ideas about how education at the FEB should be like. Maybe you have suggestions about regulatory matters; or perhaps you own the perfect receipt for strengthening the bonds in our community. Any idea is more than welcome and therefore, we hope to hear from you very soon! You can find us in room E0.06, Roeterstraat 11, 1018 WB Amsterdam. Telephone number: 020 525 4384 E-mail: fsr.feb@studentenraad.nl Check out our website/Like us on Facebook : www.studentenraad.nl / www.facebook.com/fsr.feb

  • How to Assess the Value of Nothing?

    In terms of economics, assessing the value of a good is usually quite straightforward. Whether it is economic or market value, whether we’re dealing with a free market economy or a socialist one – the factors influencing value are almost the same. One compares price of a good to its quality, availability and subjective, personal needs to assess their ‘willingness to pay’, as it is quite often cited. Until some point in history, the art’s value was assessed as easily as that of any other good. Paintings were supposed to be ‘a window’, allowing to see things as they are. They had to be a mirror for the reality – the more accurate it was, the more valuable it would become.[1] However, a drastic change came with the development of photography. The purpose of art was undermined and had to face the modern ages – ones in which both the art’s purpose and definition got blurry. And blurry it stays nowadays, to some extent constituting a nearly philosophical issue. Along with it, assessment of modern art’s quality and, therefore, value is a difficult challenge. Especially for an outsider, what can be considered art and the way it is valued can be unexpected, not to say ridiculous in appearance. When I decided to become involved during the last Amsterdam Museum Night, I volunteered to surveil one of the exhibitions. The work turned out to be hard to that, especially that the room I was taking care of was an almost genuine reconstruction of a construction site. It was filled with ash trays, wooden sticks and boards, styrofoam, rumbling pipes, broken technological devices and, what has proven especially difficult to control, empty beer cans. To explain to the drunk part of the audience, in the middle of the night, that adding cans to the composition is not required, moreover not allowed, has proven not to be an easy task. The task of discouraging art enthusiasts from teasing and feeding an alive chicken, which was part of another art piece turned out to be even more difficult. An example of laymen unable to recognise the value of art was a quite famous case of an art piece thrown away by a cleaning lady during her night shift. However, the poor woman cannot really be blamed – the art was indeed nothing else but a bag of trash, quite literally. There were cases as well when art was not only literal trash, but as well literal shit. ‘Artist’s shit‘ was a successful installation, which the artist created out of cans supposedly containing his own feces. The most transparent example, however, of how easy it can be to create an art piece, but how hard it can be to assess that piece’s value can be the case of selling NOTHING. At first, a sucessful hoax was made, which surprised and provoked the public. It consisted of photo of a crowd staring at empty walls, with an access to them restricted by the classical museum ropes and badges on the wall describing alleged pieces, and a suggestion that huge amounts of money were spent that day on nothing. Nothing in a quite, again, literal way. But it was not long to wait for the said case to happen in reality. A Kickstarter project called ‘Museum of Non-Visible Art’ managed to sell non-existent art pieces for big amounts of money, supplying the buyer with just a brief description of what she gets. The question that comes up, question of what art is, is strictly connected with the one I would like to pose, even though the answer seems for now out of my reach: how to assess what is art worth? How can we correctly value something if we, the big part of the society, are not even able to understand it or assess its authenticity? “I have never been against new art as such; some of it is good, much is crap, most is somewhere in between.” ~Robert Hughes It is really hard to value an illusion correctly. To value something that doesn’t exist or differs from regular object only by an intention that accompanies its creation seems impossible. With old masters the reputation sets the value – we can be sure that a piece of Chagall or Picasso will, in the future, keep its worth. But how can we be sure that a piece of a temporarily appreciated and popular artist will not become worthless in such a tentative market? Because a market in which the rules are not by any mean clearly set and which is selling intangible assets is not one in which we can gain any certainty. When it comes to art, the same rules seem to apply as with luxury products – it is not a good itself that is being sold, but a certain attitude towards life, social status and an elusive feeling of uniqueness that comes with it . And as much as I would love to one day be able to spend millions on unnecessarily exclusive cars, I would also be thrilled to have a possibility to spend hundreds of thousands on nothing, just in order to feel posh and dainty. [1] Danto, A. C. (2013). What art is. London: Yale University Press.

  • When Robots Meet Piketty

    Why not think about robotics? The topic is hot (witness these five recent studies: 1 2 3 4 5). It is also the time of the year to look ahead. And, probably the most compelling reason, the topic is fascinating, multifaceted and potentially revolutionary, not only by adding things that yet don’t exist, but also by changing various aspects of many people’s daily lives. Actually, robots are not so new. Think of the automobile industry and the medical sector for example. This holds even more when we see robotics as part of a broader trend, the digital revolution, which already has entered our lives. Is there anyone who does not use a smartphone or a route planner in the car or a smart thermostat at home? But what is new is the intensity of the changes that may lie ahead. Machines that are not prone to the errors that people make because they are human These changes have many positive sides. Robots that make life easier by doing a great deal of the housework, self-driving cars which make driving safer, machines that are not prone to the errors that people make because they are human, new devices that let handicapped people (deaf, blind, autistic) people participate in the labour market, technologies that allow people to consume things with considerably less waiting time. And those are only a few examples. Our lives will become more vulnerable to technological failures [..] There are downsides as well. People will lose their jobs and among them people who cannot easily acquire new jobs. That does not apply to all sorts of jobs, so inequality may also increase. Unemployment will increase as well if the economy embarks on a path that features a greater pace of innovation. In addition, our lives will become more vulnerable to technological failures if we continue to make ourselves more dependent on technology. And there is something about privacy. Some of us are quite assertive about the future changes. In 2045 computers will have become the equivalents of the human brain, we will start wearing hypodermic sensors in the coming years and computers will occupy about half of current jobs in twenty years. That may be true, but often predictions turn out to have been too optimistic or too pessimistic at a later date. Who predicted ten years ago that smartphones would become our closest friend in only a couple of years? That many changes lie ahead is very likely, but the intensity, the timing and the form of these changes are quite uncertain. It seems better to invest in those qualities that cannot be easily reproduced by robots That the future is uncertain may sound obvious, but it has an important implication. Rather than trying to figure out which jobs will likely disappear in the future, it seems better to invest in those qualities that cannot be easily reproduced by robots: make sure that you are creative, that you can think out of the box, that you can come up with new ideas, that you are good in social interaction. Such investments will likely pay out in terms of better labour market careers, although the precise way this is going to work out is uncertain beforehand. Both Piketty’s fundamental inequality [..] and the digital revolution [..] are arguments to consider seriously the taxation of private wealth Robotics will also require government to rethink their policies. The case for technology policies in general seems weak, but policies toward the development of autonomous technologies deserve serious attention. Governments will also have to think about a legal framework for robots: who is liable for damages caused by a robot? Further, a case can be made for rethinking the tax system. It is not difficult to imagine a future in which only the very few people who are lucky to invent a popular robot to become astronomically rich (in fact, we see examples of this already today). Society can wait and see these people follow the examples of Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg and become philanthropists. Society can also choose not to take the risk that this is not going to happen and rather start taxing wealth at much higher than current rates. Here, robots meet Piketty: both Piketty’s fundamental inequality (the empirical fact that the rate of return on capital is higher than the rate of economic growth) and the digital revolution that features new industries that make very few people very rich are arguments to consider seriously the taxation of private wealth. What then should one do in the meantime, before the robots come marching in? Keep your eyes and ears open and pick up everything that is interesting and relevant. No robot can do that for you. #labourmarket #Piketty #robotics #wealthtaxation

bottom of page