How We Learn to Thrive in a World Without Guarantees
“I’m finally doing this,” I thought on my way to the voting section in Amsterdam. It was my first time voting in the Romanian presidential elections, and I was enthusiastic–at least until the rumors that the elections would be canceled turned out true. For a moment, it felt like March 2020 all over again, when I had just returned from school to the breaking news of a total lockdown being declared. Why does that feel so similar? I wondered, standing there, frozen between disbelief and déjà vu.
I wasn't alone: Romanians were already on the streets protesting for democracy, while my university friends were silently avenging themselves, as no one knew what was happening. There was no steadiness, just the natural response of "Wait and see," as my grandparents like to say. “Om vedea si-om trai” is a Romanian phrase I've become overly familiar with. A phrase that made uncertainty easier to handle. And there it was: uncertainty. The defining feeling of our time.
There was no steadiness, just the natural response of "Wait and see," as my grandparents like to say. “Om vedea si-om trai” is a Romanian phrase I've become overly familiar with. A phrase that made uncertainty easier to handle. And there it was: uncertainty. The defining feeling of our time.
This sensation is a global phenomenon. It’s not just a Romanian experience, nor confined to my small circle of friends and family. Political swings are a regular headline in the United States, where debates over healthcare, immigration, and gun control seem like constant battlegrounds. Meanwhile, in Europe, governments often seem on the verge of falling apart: Italy changes prime ministers as frequently as fashion seasons, Britain grapples with Brexit’s fallout, and France faces protests over pension reforms. And then there’s the climate: Venice battling record-breaking floods, Greece is engulfed in summer wildfires, and Germany is hit by catastrophic storms. These events are rewriting the rules of what we once called ‘normal weather’. There’s no clear roadmap, only a collective movement navigating twist after twist.
Uncertainty is the fabric of our time, affecting how we work, connect, and even dream about the future. Yet, for all its discomfort, there’s an intriguing beauty in it. Could it be that this uncertainty is teaching us something valuable? Something we may have overlooked in times of apparent stability?
Two words are needed: adapt and innovate. Unpredictability forces us to question old habits, rethink priorities, and find new ways to cope. But it also raises questions we can’t ignore: How does uncertainty shape our future: does it drive caution, inspire creativity, or foster growth?
I’d like to believe that living in the unknown isn’t entirely a burden. Maybe it’s a chance to encounter change with a different perspective. Because when nothing is certain, perhaps everything becomes possible.
So join me on the journey of discovering our current world with zero guarantees and making the most of it!
Defining Uncertainty
Uncertainty is a feeling, a state of existing in the ‘in-between’. It’s the hesitation before a decision, the unease before news breaks, and simply the tense pause before outcomes unfold. This isn’t inherently negative, but it does challenge our need for control and stability.
Psychological research offers insights into this feeling, linking uncertainty to higher levels of anxiety and stress. Studies on decision-making reveal that the human brain is wired for stability and predictability, so in today’s world, we struggle to adapt when there is a lack of clarity. This idea comes from Kahneman and Tversky’s (1979) work on Prospect Theory, highlighting how the preference for stability explains why uncertainty is particularly anxiety-inducing, as it forces us to operate without clear probabilities or guarantees. For example, in moments of financial crises or political turmoil, people struggle to make effective choices.
Therefore, the feeling of uncertainty has been magnified by global events. Economically, rising inflation and energy crises left both nations and individuals fighting instability. People question not only if their savings are enough, but also whether foundational systems can withstand the pressure. Politically, leadership changes, conflicts, and fragile alliances remind us how volatile our systems can be.
Uncertainty doesn’t just influence how we feel; it shapes how we live. This constant fear of the unknown can immobilize action, but it also sparks creativity and resilience. Take, for example, the reaction of Beirut’s fashion industry amid the crisis: despite ongoing conflicts and economic instability, Lebanese designers have come up with innovative tactics to reassure, at least to some extent, a sense of safety. Hussein Bazaza repurposed his studio to assist displaced individuals while Azzi & Osta completed their collections amidst the turmoil, turning adversity into artistic expression.
The Psychological Impact
Our brain’s fight-or-flight mechanism is a primitive survival response designed to protect us in moments of perceived danger. When faced with the unknown, the amygdala, which is the brain’s fear center, is stimulated and releases stress hormones like cortisol. While this helps sharpen focus in the short term, prolonged exposure to uncertainty can affect decision-making, leading to heightened anxiety and hesitation. During the recent surge of extreme weather events, such as the wildfires in Los Angeles, or the floods in Spain, many families found themselves unable to plan for the future. The unpredictability of these disasters left people hesitant to make decisions about long-term investments, creating a sense of paralysis. One evacuee shared his concerns, saying, “What do you do? You start over.”
Humans crave control over their environment; it’s our way of feeling safe. Yet, today’s world disrupts this innate desire, showing us just how little control we have. This may lead to extreme behaviors, such as hoarding during crises. I remember my mom urging me to stock up on non-perishable food several times this year. During the pandemic, our pantry was full of boxes of canned goods, just in case things took a turn for the worse. Watching the news, I saw images of empty supermarket shelves and a constant state of panic… all fueled by the unpredictability of the situation. Sharing these personal examples serves as a reminder that we are all in this together. While it might seem like a personalized story of one Romanian girl, when viewed on a larger scale, it reflects a collective experience. The sudden increase in certain apparent “needs” is nothing else than the act of reclaiming a sense of control in an uncontrollable situation.
Uncertainty is a double-edged sword. On one hand, it can create fear and extreme reactions that might do more harm than good, or it can motivate individuals, businesses, or nations for hope and innovation. Throughout history, periods of great instability have often led to groundbreaking advancements. The 2008 global financial crisis eroded public trust in big banks, creating opportunities for financial technology startups (fintech) to thrive. Entrepreneurs responded by offering innovative alternatives, such as Square’s mobile payment solutions for small businesses and Betterment’s online investment platform, leveraging technology to address shifting consumer needs.
However, the same uncertainty that stimulates innovation can also encourage fear and resistance to change. People may stick to the familiar, even when it no longer serves them, or project their anxiety onto others, creating divisions and conflict. During the rise of financial technology startups, many traditional banks, like JPMorgan Chase, resisted adopting technologies like mobile banking apps and digital payment systems. Instead of innovating, they relied on outdated in-process processes and high service fees. This resistance allowed fintech companies to dominate the digital payment space, leaving traditional banks scrambling to catch up years later.
The balance between hope and fear determines whether uncertainty becomes an opportunity for growth or a barrier to progress.
How Uncertainty Shapes Society Today
Understanding the paragraph above, about the psychological impacts of uncertainty, creates a linear relationship to how society as a whole is affected. I will uncover three main fields that should outline a clear image of our society: politics, economics, and technology.
Uncertainty fuels both polarization and populism. In times of unpredictability, people are often attracted by leaders who offer simple solutions or strong promises of stability, even if those solutions lack substance. Populist leaders, in particular, have capitalized on this dynamic, using fear of the unknown to amplify divisions and consolidate power. The recent annulment of the Romanian presidential elections, due to confirmed foreign interference promoting a specific candidate, highlights this dynamic. Calin Georgescu gained attention by presenting himself as a firm nationalist and offering simplistic, populist rhetoric in response to the country’s political and economic uncertainties. His campaign called for a return to “traditional values”, rejecting EU influence and challenging the dominant parties Romanians usually vote for. Despite the annulment, Georgescu secured 23% of the votes–a reflection of a significant shift in public sentiment, reinforcing political polarization. Distrust in traditional institutions and fear of uncertainty drove many Romanians to vote for a far-right candidate promising oversimplified solutions to complex societal problems.
Achieving economic stability in times of uncertainty is a challenge. In unstable markets, consumers often shift toward more cautious spending, not just as a practical response but as an emotional safeguard. Therefore, economic unpredictability influences consumer behavior in ways that affect entire communities. For instance, during periods of inflation, people tend to rely more on discount retailers and second-hand goods, reflecting a widespread effort to save money. For individuals, this often means sacrificing quality or convenience, as shopping becomes less about choice and more about survival. Thus, businesses and markets have to adapt to meet the changing needs of more cost-conscious consumers. This trend may widen the gap between socio-economic groups, as people with lower incomes increasingly depend on ways to cut costs.
Uncertainty also reshapes the workplace, influencing not just how people work but how they envision their futures. The rise of the gig economy is a testament to this. While it offers adaptability in an unpredictable job market, it is not a solution for the long term. Workers are drawn to gig roles not just for flexibility but often out of necessity, as traditional employment becomes harder to secure. In Ukraine, infrastructure damage pushed workers online, with millions of Ukrainians flying to neighboring countries to take on temporary jobs; in Russia, economic sanctions triggered corporate withdrawals, leaving many workers to seek gig or freelance opportunities.
These shifts show how uncertainty forces society to adapt on a macro scale, while at the individual level, it reinvents people’s priorities, careers, and emotional well-being.
Finding Meaning
Despite the struggles imposed by this constant state of ‘not knowing what comes next’, today’s world is revealing the strength and adaptability of individuals and communities. Take the recent protests in Georgia, where tens of thousands have taken to the streets to challenge electoral outcomes and demand democratic reforms. Confronted with claims of electoral fraud and the delay of their European Union accession, Georgians have demonstrated remarkable determination in their pursuit of transparency and closer ties to Western ideals.
In this uncertain environment, citizens have come together to demonstrate how uncertainty, rather than paralyzing people, can inspire a deeper commitment to shared ideals and long-term goals. It is through this adaptability that communities find strength, even in the face of difficulty.
This aligns with the psychological concept of antifragility, introduced by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, which describes how certain systems not only endure chaos but grow stronger because of it. For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, small businesses adapted by shifting to digital operations, remote work became a norm, and innovative technologies were developed to tackle global challenges.
Uncertainty has a unique way of connecting people. Crises create shared experiences, reminding us of our collective humanity. The global solidarity movements sparked by the Ukraine-Russia war demonstrated how people have come together to support those affected through donations, protests, or hosting refugees. Similarly, climate change has fostered international cooperation working across nations to address the crisis. These examples show how times of unpredictability offer people the opportunity to find a renewed sense of purpose and unity.
Lessons from Uncertainty
Living with uncertainty isn’t easy, but it’s possible to navigate it more effectively with the right mindset and tools. Focusing on what can be managed provides a sense of stability amidst chaos. Practices like mindfulness can help ground us in the present moment, reducing anxiety about what’s beyond our control. Small but consistent actions remind us that while we can’t predict the future, we can shape how we respond to it. A nice way to remember this might be to realize that the art of living today is learning to dance on a shifting floor.
The beauty of the unknown… sounds poetic, but it’s real. You can think of it as a driving force for progress. In the absence of knowing what comes next, we’re given the rare opportunity to reimagine, to adapt, and to create something entirely new.
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