How the Party’s Anti-Establishment Messaging and Social Media Savvy Have Captured a Disillusioned Youth
A new pattern has emerged in Germany’s recent state elections: Young Germans are increasingly trusting and voting for Germany’s Alternative Fuer Deutschland (AfD). With European Parliament elections and multiple state elections taking place this year, the AfD has made very significant strides in aligning and connecting the youngest voter base with its vision and ideology.
To demonstrate this growth in youth voting, it is valuable to look at the last five state elections that took place in Germany:
State | %18-24 year-old vote share in previous election(for AfD) | %18-24 year-old vote share in the last election (for AfD) |
Brandenburg | 2019: 23% | 2024: 32% = 9% increase |
Thuringia | 2019: 26% | 2024: 38% = 12% increase |
Saxony | 2019: 24% | 2024: 31% = 7% increase |
Bavaria | 2018: 10% | 2024: 15% = 5% increase |
Hesse | 2018: 11% | 2024: 17% = 6% increase |
While it can be said that the AfD is evidently more popular in the east of Germany, with their largest voter share being in Brandenburg, Thuringia and Saxony, it cannot be denied that the party is increasing its popularity and numbers throughout the country and in areas they are notoriously less popular in such as Hesse and Bavaria. Young people growlingly trust the right-wing extremist party with their vote, confident it is what the country needs to prosper again. What do they see in the party campaigning that resonates with them, and what are potential factors that explain how the most conservative party in German politics can win the hearts of new emerging young voters? Wasn’t it the young who continuously wanted stricter environmental policy, greater social equality and diversity, and more lenience toward humane immigration policies? How come this is precisely what the AfD completely opposes?
Loss of trust with established parties
One potential factor that can explain this is the loss of trust with Germany's established parties. The rise of smaller and more extreme parties on the ideological spectrum tends to demonstrate a lack of trust and approval for established moderate parties in multiparty democratic systems. Since the creation of modern democratic Germany after WW2, either one of Germany’s two largest parties (the Christian Democratic Union, CDU and the Social Democratic Party, SPD) has been one of the leading parties in every single coalition that existed. The decades-long dominance of these two parties perhaps demonstrates the effective stability Germany’s coalitions had brought to the country, considering it doesn’t operate under a two-party system such as in the US or the UK. Rivalling parties outside the CDU and SPD are not limited by a voting system that unfairly favours popular parties. In sharp contrast, if the CDU and SPD existed under the British First Past the Post voting system, their popularity would be inflated, as the largest parties are un-proportionally overrepresented. It leads to examples such as Labour, who in 2005 won 35% of the popular vote and 55% of the seats in parliament. Germany’s multiparty system leads to far greater proportionate allocation of seats according to the popular vote. This, therefore, demonstrates the historical functionality and popularity of the SPD and CDU, considering their continuous presence in successive German governments.
Be that as it may, the inevitable dominance of Germany’s two moderate parties in the next general election has never been brought into question as much as it has now. What went wrong for them?
Germany's noticeable struggle to maintain the stability of its economy since the Pandemic and its notable dependency on Russian gas, which was exposed in the aftermath of the Russian-Ukrainian War, has caused the sitting government a severe headache in achieving prosperity and growth for its economy. Since the beginning of Germany’s coalition government in 2021 (SPD, FDP and Greens), the country has been marked by its economic growth shrinking from a recorded 3.1% at the beginning of its term to -0.3% in 2023, inflationary spikes and a severe energy crisis.
This economic underperformance has led to many in the country, particularly young voters, losing trust in the established parties at the heart of the country’s democracy. Germany is often associated with the stability experienced throughout the ‘Merkel years’ from the early 2000s to the end of her tenure as chancellor in 2021. It is those same young voters who perceive their upbringing in this period as an era where the country had been doing well and economically stable. When individuals reflect on their childhood, they often view it through the lens of innocence and simplicity. During youth, responsibilities are fewer, and the complexities of adult life—like political and economic challenges—are not yet fully understood. This creates a sense of nostalgia for a simpler and seemingly more stable world, even if, in reality, those times were not objectively more stable. Through this picture, many first-time voters perceive Germany today to be at one of its worst points regarding political and economic stability.
Economic difficulties in Germany also allow the AfD to voice its harsh critique of EU politics and globalisation. Alice Weidel, one of the party’s most popular politicians, describes EU policies as “directly responsible for the decline in our economic performance” and are “strangling German industry” (Bundestag debate 2019). Through the lens of the AfD, Germany’s direct cooperation and heavy involvement in the EU removes German issues as the priority for the domestic parliament and as a direct threat to the country's integrity and sovereignty. By blaming foreign entities for the difficulties faced at home, the AfD can justify to young voters why looking inward toward German advancements is a better option for the country than sticking to the same old globalist-aligned agenda that the CDU or SPD advocate.
While it can be argued that a lot of the forces driving the present-day economic underperformance are external, be it the global pandemic or inflationary spikes felt close to everywhere on the globe, the new coalition government of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens and the Liberal Democrats (FDP) have received the reputation of being incompetent in its role to govern.
This reputation of a loss of trust in the established party is at the heart of voters searching for a new alternative and a party that seeks to re-establish a sense of security and stability for the country; thus, many have looked in the direction of the AfD. As a relatively new party (founded in 2013), people legitimise the party’s backing as supporting a new option that hasn’t been explored before. The party celebrates their anti-establishment narrative and wants to emphasise its contrasting policy, which puts German sovereignty at the forefront of its messaging.
While this may all be true regarding why young Germans might find the AfD a promising replacement for the century-long-ruling established parties, it is worth looking at how the party reaches out to young voters and conveys its ideas.
Use of Social Media
Party strategies for engaging a larger voting base in the 21st century have undeniably been marked by the effort to capture voters through social media. This strategy goes hand in hand with establishing a greater young voting base since they will use social media to a far greater extent. While it is hard to prove definitively whether this has impacted shaping the AfD’s young vote, it is evident that the party is outperforming all other parties regarding following and engagement numbers. As of today, in 2024, AfD's official Instagram account has amassed 245,000 followers, which is more than any other party in German politics. Their TikTok account has 5 times as many followers (around 500,000) as the second-largest German party on the platform, the SPD. This is surprising considering how new this party is in German politics compared to its historical opponents.
Through online posts, the party can call for reform and criticise government issues directly related to its ideology and vision. The AfD’s social media campaign strategically frames the coalition’s economic struggles as directly related to immigration and EU pressures, calling for a ‘Germany-first’ approach that many young voters view as a refreshing departure from the status quo. Specific party figures have been particularly successful through their online campaigning.
Maximilian Krah is a prominent figure and AfD politician who has successfully used the social media algorithm to considerably boost his and the party’s popularity through Tiktok. His very direct and often provocative content is easy to understand and doesn't require a preexisting knowledge of politics, economics, etc. He famously stated through his social media that “real men are right-wing” as relationship advice to get a girlfriend.
Krah effectively identifies through videos such as this one of the party’s main targeting audiences it consistently attracts - men. Research consistently displays how men are more likely to vote for AfD than women are. While this may support a differing argument, saying that men vote for the party instead of young people, research has proven that men still dominate the youngest voting bracket supporting the AfD. Surveys by the Statistica confirmed that men in the 18-29 age group have a higher affinity for the AfD, with male support surpassing female support by 9-10 percentage points.
It is perhaps relevant to mention that Krah has since been sidelined by his party and banned from making further campaign appearances after claiming in an interview in May 2024 that “not all members of the SS were criminals”. Nevertheless, as the leading candidate for the European Parliament elections held in May this year, his campaigns and online messaging enabled the AfD to be the second most popular party amongst 18-24-year-olds. Despite being largely silenced by his party, his role and objective were achieved.
Alice Weidel is naturally another figure that won't be unfamiliar to a German audience. As co-leader of the party, she is arguably alongside Bjoern Hoecke, one of the two most influential personalities of the AfD. She is also very active on social media platforms, particularly on platforms such as X/Twitter and YouTube.
Alone in October 2024, Alice Weidel posted 23 different tweets surrounding the theme of ‘uncontrollable’ migration. By repeatedly reinforcing the party's worries, an echo chamber is created where audiences can’t escape online the apparent and imminent threat of, in this case, migration. A study by the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) shows that repeated exposure to Weidel’s messaging on social media has led to a measurable shift in youth opinions on migration, many echoing the AfD’s position on limiting immigration. These posts continuously repeat the party’s main slogans and themes that they advocate for. Her content is designed to provoke strong reactions and engage with populist narratives that resonate with the AfD’s voter base.
This type of content has allowed AfD party members to be very popular online, particularly with young audiences.
A European Wide Phenomena?
The rise of the AfD among young voters in Germany may be part of a broader European phenomenon where traditional left-leaning youth support is shifting towards right-leaning and populist movements. Across Europe, young voters in countries like France, Italy, and Poland are showing increased support for parties that prioritise national sovereignty, criticise globalisation, and challenge the established political order, similar to Germany and the AfD.
In Poland, for instance, the far-right Konfederacja has gained traction among young voters who hadn’t been politically involved previously and had little interest in voting. Although it can’t be definitively proven, it appears that young voters who might not traditionally participate in elections have been drawn in by the messaging and outreach of far-right parties, particularly through their increased use of social media to promote right-leaning ideologies.
In recent elections, France’s Rassemblement National (RN) saw 33% of young voters support them in the first round of the parliamentary race, while Italy's Fratelli d’Italia garnered 23% of the youth vote in a separate poll, underscoring a significant trend of young Europeans turning to right-wing populist parties in response to economic and social frustrations
These examples demonstrate that Germany isn’t the only country that has seen this sudden rise and shift in younger voting patterns.
This shift may be driven by factors like economic insecurity, dissatisfaction with the European Union, and a feeling that conventional parties are out of touch with the concerns of younger generations, who face unique challenges in today's globalised economy. Many of these young voters perceive right-leaning parties as advocates for strong national identity and economic policies that promise job stability and social security. The AfD’s appeal among young Germans, through its nationalist messaging and critique of established EU policies, aligns with these sentiments, suggesting that the movement in Germany could be part of a larger continental realignment where young Europeans are embracing alternatives that promise change outside the mainstream political spectrum.
Is the Sky the limit for the AfD?
While Germany can be characterised as an ageing society, with the elderly population still holding significant sway in the popular vote, the growth in youth engagement for the AfD is monumental to its success today and, more importantly, for the future. The party has arguably never looked stronger and more threatening for the rest of the German parliament, considering their successes this year and the next general election being around the corner in 2025.
Some would argue that the AfD has done precisely what many right-leaning conservative parties could only dream of - attracting the young vote to its side. This new alignment among young voters signals a potential ideological shift that could sustain the AfD's influence well beyond the next election. If this trend persists, it may gradually reshape Germany's political landscape, embedding right-wing populism more deeply in the national discourse and complicating future coalition-building efforts among traditional parties.
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