How the AfD’s silent victory on January 29th could redefine power in the Bundestag.
For decades, Germany’s largest parties have upheld an unwavering principle and tradition: the firewall. This historical truce was upheld by Germany’s largest parties, vowing never to willingly collaborate with the country’s most extreme parties on the ideological spectrum within Germany’s parliamentary system.
On January 29th, that firewall was breached.
A new parliamentary motion curbing illegal migration, initiated by the centre-right Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) leader Friedrich Merz, was passed on the 29th of January with 348 votes in favour and 345 against. The CDU only managed to pass the bill due to the support it had accepted from the Alternative Fuer Deutschland (AfD).
The AfD is the parliament’s most prominent far-right nationalist force, capitalising on public discontent over immigration, EU policies, and political elites.
Outsiders may view this vote as merely insignificant, given that it concerns only a single piece of legislation passed in the German parliament. If the bill is effective, who cares who voted in favour or against it?
Many established and longstanding figures in German politics couldn't disagree more, arguing that this could mark the beginning of a significant shift in the party dynamics within the Bundestag.
The reaction in German politics was so strong that even long-absent figures, such as Angela Merkel, re-emerged to express concern. Having vowed to stay out of German politics, the former chancellor felt this break in tradition was serious enough to use her voice to highlight the risks and dangers of this decision. For her, breaking the promise of non-cooperation was politically irresponsible and inexcusable. Her longstanding hostility toward Merz is reflected in her decision to speak out, underscoring not just the shift within the Bundestag but, more importantly, within the CDU itself.
Has the CDU come to terms with the AfD’s rise in German politics by increasingly advocating for issues championed by the far right?
Merz understands that forming a coalition with the AfD, in theory, would cause political turmoil and likely mark the end of his career. He has repeatedly insisted that the CDU would never enter a coalition with the AfD, emphasising that the two parties still differ significantly on issues such as NATO, EU membership, and the rule of law. According to him, the bill is based on CDU principles, and the AfD’s approval does not signify genuine cooperation. Or so he wants us to believe.
Friedrich Merz can continue to repeat his promise that the CDU has no intention of cooperating in government with the far right. However, the longstanding commitment to not passing legislation with extremist parties has been upheld since the beginning of Germany’s parliamentary democracy. This changed at the end of January this year. Who’s to say Merz’s promise won’t be broken again in the future?
More than ever, right-wing collaboration seems to be becoming increasingly acceptable within German politics and across Europe. The AfD’s rise in German politics since its founding in 2013 is undeniable, with the nationalist force polling second nationally at around 20% a week before the election. And now, it seems, even Germany’s largest centrist party is no longer fully denying it either.
Could this decision, however, come back to haunt Merz, just millimetres away from securing a comfortable majority in the country’s upcoming election?
His challenge since this decision has been to reassure centrist and pro-business CDU voters that his party remains committed to democratic values and the Western alliance.
Anti-fascist protests are nothing new in Germany’s streets and cities. A persistent fear of growing AfD support has fueled Germany’s centrist and left-wing factions to call for protests against right-wing influence. However, for the first time, these protests are not only directed at the AfD. Merz’s face now stands right beside them.
These could be difficult final days before the election for Merz, who must now reassure voters of the CDU’s centrist stance. What had been a smooth-sailing campaign, entirely focused on bashing the SPD coalition for its failures in government, has now shifted to damage control as he scrambles to contain the long-term fallout of this controversy with elections fast approaching.
The passing of this bill has exposed the fault lines within Germany's parliamentary party dynamics and the broader political landscape. The repercussions of this moment could shape the country’s political trajectory for months, if not years, to come.
The AfD certainly won’t be in government in four weeks' time.
Surely not. Right?
Comments