Assad's regime is gone, but does the future mean a change for the better?
What happened on December 8th took everyone by surprise. After five decades of the totalitarian rules of the Assad family, the rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) took over Damascus. Euphoria eroded throughout the country with people coming to the streets to celebrate. Many Syrian refugees from neighbouring countries came back to their motherland and political prisoners were liberated and reunited with their families. The takeover of the power went without a fight. Assad’s military forces started to leave their stations and the dictator himself fled to Russia together with his closest trustees. The Assad regime was known for its brutality and political persecution. Only since the beginning of the civil war in 2011, Assad’s forces have been responsible for 202,000 extrajudicial killings of civilians (including 23,058 children) and at least 96,321 enforced disappearances. The devastating civil war originated from the wave of protests evoked by the Arab Spring. The brutal suppression of the demonstrations by Assad’s forces resulted in the forming of military opposition which by 2012 expanded into war.
Syrian conflict and recent events
However, the rebel forces are not united. This reflects the demographics of Syria, which is diverse religiously and ethnically. The majority of Syrians (70%) are Sunni Muslims, which, besides Arabs, includes most of the Kurds. Christians of all denominations and Alawites (including Assad) both constitute 10% of the population. The remaining contains minor ethnoreligious groups such as Druze.
For several years now the frontlines have been frozen, with the majority of the country under President Bashar al-Assad’s rule.
The North-Eastern part was controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish group, backed by the United States, advocating for the secular country and the federalisation of the state. The organization is, however, condemned by Turkey, which links it to the Kurdistan Workers' Party. To push the SDF away from its borders, Turkey backs another group, the Syrian National Army (SNA), which in its agenda, besides fighting Assad’s government, opposes Islamist groups and aims to create a safe zone in the North of the country.
The small North-Western part of the country was held by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) with Idlib as its centre where they have been operating a pseudo-state for the past five years. It’s HTS that organized the offensive, utilising the weakening of Assad’s closest allies Russia and Hezbollah which are both occupied by the warfighting, respectively in Ukraine and Israel.
First, rebels moved to Aleppo, taking the second biggest city on December 3rd, to further move to Hama and Homs and finally reach the capital—Damascus—on December 8th. In just five days the hope was brought back to the country. But after the wave of the euphoria, the question of what is next emerges. As the UN humanitarian aid official, Tom Fletcher, (after meeting with the HTS leader) aptly commented on the current situation as a "moment of cautious hope in Syria.”
After the takeover of power, HTS’s leader Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa appointed a temporary government, with Mohammed al-Bashir as a prime minister, that will govern the country until March 2025. Moreover, al-Sharaa announced the plan to hold free elections and underlined the importance of creating a country with strong institutions, where all Syrians can live together.
Dubious Past
The HTS leader seems to say all the right things, but the origins of HTS as well as al-Sharaa’s past raise concerns. The organisation derives from al-Qaeda to which it was linked until 2016, after they decided to cut these ties. Additionally, al-Julani fought in the Iraq War in al-Qaeda forces. He even was the head of the organisation in Mosul at some point.
The UN still recognises Hayat Tahrir al-Sham as a terrorist organisation and the US still offers prize money for information about al-Julani.
During his interview with CNN, when asked about his past in al-Qaeda, al-Sharaa blamed it on the youth’s ignorance, stating that he is not the man he used to be. He further assured that Syria will not follow Afghanistan’s path and restrict women’s rights.
To further distance himself from the Jihadist organisation al-Sharaa tries to reestablish his image. He switched to using his real name, Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, rather than his more recognisable religious alias–Abu Mohammad al-Julani–and during the official meetings and interviews, he tends to wear suits rather than religious or military garments.
Yet, the first signs of disconnections between the statements and acts start to come to light. At the beginning of the month, prior to the start of the school year, the Ministry of Education released a new curriculum for all grades. The Minister—Nazir al-Qadri—explains the reason for the change is the removal of content glorifying the "defunct Assad regime," like poems praising Bashar al-Assad and his father in Arabic language class. But there are other changes. The new curriculum puts more emphasis on religion with phrases. “Defending the nation” has been changed to “Defending Allah.” Moreover, from the science classes topics like Evolution or Big Bang theory had been dropped. Mr. Qadri explains these changes as a correction of "inaccuracies" in Islamic education. The fact that these changes were made without any consultations worries some activists who call people to raise their voices. They worry that this implies that HTS’s statements about coexistence do not mean the co-creation of the government. After all, Julani has yet to appoint a non-Sunni representative in the newly created office.
Moreover, we need to remember that there are still fights between the groups. Al-Sharaa had a plan to organize a National Convention, which would bring together 1,200 delegates from Syria’s different religious, ethical and political groups to discuss the future of the country, sometime in January.
New beginning
However, the word is that it was advised against him to organise the conference so soon by the foreign diplomats, stating that not being rushed might improve the chances for success. To rebuild the country Julani needs to stay in good relations with the West, which financial help will be necessary, especially as in 13 years of the civil war Syria’s economy shrank by 85%. Just last week, the United States decided to loosen up some of the sanctions. Furthermore, al-Julani recently met with French and German foreign to, among many other issues, initiate the talks on lifting the European sanctions put on the country. These are the first steps to resurrect the Syrian economy.
The fall of Assad’s regime is just the beginning. The rebuilding and uniting of a destroyed nation will require time, patience and the ability to compromise from all sides. If al-Shaara actually proceeds with his statements, rebuilding Syria might be a prime example of multiethnic democracy in the region. But if he fails, we might witness the beginning of a new phase in the civil war. Recently, he announced that for the free elections, we will probably have to wait another four years, needed to draft the constitution and bring the country to relative order. During this time, a lot can happen, and the world, with Syrians at the forefront, will be watching carefully. This is undoubtedly a historic moment for the Middle East. However, among the uncertainty, the question of what is next remains.
Comments